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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on passing than their standard game plan.

The model projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 136.1 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average).

The Green Bay Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.3 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

The Houston O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Joe Mixon's 75.6% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable decline in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 83.5% rate.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Green Bay's collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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