Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 20, 2024

Updated Jan 19, 2025 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-167/+128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are massive underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their usual approach.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see 136.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The model projects Joe Mixon to total 4.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Texans grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
Joe Mixon's 74.0% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a noteable reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 83.5% mark.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (76.2%) versus RBs this year (76.2%).
The Chiefs linebackers rank as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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