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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 19

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Texans being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to pass on 62.3% of their downs: the highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The model projects Joe Mixon to garner 4.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Joe Mixon has been an integral part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 12.1% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are predicted by the predictive model to run only 63.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

In regards to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Texans ranks as the worst in the NFL this year.

Joe Mixon's 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a remarkable decrease in his receiving prowess over last season's 83.5% rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (77.1%) versus RBs this year (77.1%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 7th-best in the league.

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