Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Houston Texans

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 21, 2024 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to accrue 5.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Joe Mixon's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 83.5% to 73.0%.
This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs defense has conceded a puny 79.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 7th-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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