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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+123/-159).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +123.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Texans.

The predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 26.84 seconds per snap.

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-most in the league.

In this contest, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets.

Joe Mixon has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 11.9% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Texans grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.

Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 83.5% to 69.7%.

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