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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The model projects Joe Mixon to total 3.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Joe Mixon has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 10.9% this year, which puts him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 8-point advantage, the Texans are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their normal approach.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projections to have only 127.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Tennessee Titans, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.

The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Joe Mixon's 66.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a substantial decrease in his receiving skills over last year's 83.5% mark.

More Joe Mixon Player Props

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