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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Texans have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 62.4 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to earn 3.3 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Dallas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Texans being a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to pass on 54.7% of their opportunities: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dallas Cowboys, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (just 28.3 per game) this year.

Joe Mixon has been used less as a potential target this season (40.7% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (53.5%).

The Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

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