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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Houston Texans vs Detroit Lions

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +138 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Texans are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their normal game plan.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Texans to pass on 59.1% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip among all teams this week.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

The Houston Texans have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.

The Lions defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the most passes in football (39.9 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Joe Mixon's 39.0% Route% this year represents a substantial diminishment in his passing attack workload over last year's 53.5% rate.

The Houston offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 83.5% to 69.2%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's unit has been fantastic this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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