Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
Joe Mixon has run a route on 50.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 3.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties grade out as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.