Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Houston Texans · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 1, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Texans this year (a staggering 61.4 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to earn 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Joe Mixon's 19.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 14.2.
Joe Mixon ranks as one of the best pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an exceptional 22.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.9 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 83.5% to 69.7%.
This year, the formidable New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing RBs: a feeble 4.6 YAC.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's unit has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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