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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Houston Texans vs Baltimore Ravens

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

Our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

The model projects Joe Mixon to total 4.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Texans to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Houston Texans grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

Joe Mixon's possession skills have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 83.5% to 73.0%.

This year, the strong Ravens defense has yielded a measly 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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