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Joe Mixon
NFL · Player Props
Joe Mixon
RB · Houston Texans
Receiving Yards
Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans · Week 16, 2024 Updated Dec 21, 2024 5:36 PM UTC
NFL Props Joe Mixon Receiving Yards

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -125.

Favors Over
  • This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
  • The projections expect the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
  • The projections expect this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.6 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to accrue 5.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Favors Under
  • The Houston O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Joe Mixon's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 83.5% to 73.0%.
  • This year, the tough Chiefs defense has surrendered a paltry 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the best in football.
  • This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a measly 4.8 yards.
  • As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Kansas City's group of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.
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