Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to earn 3.8 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this year, accumulating 10.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 7.55 rate last year.
The Bills pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. running backs this year, conceding 7.20 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
Joe Mixon has accumulated a measly -7.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 3rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
Joe Mixon's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.
Joe Mixon's 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year reflects an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching ability over last year's 32.0 rate.