Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+412/-897).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -862 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -897.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.0% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 20.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for RBs.
Joe Mixon has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among running backs, hauling in a stellar 86.2% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.
Joe Mixon grades out in the 88th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.18 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers project as the 10th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a lowly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.