Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+311/-563).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -490 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -563.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Joe Mixon has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 16.0.
Joe Mixon has been among the most reliable receivers in the league among running backs, catching a stellar 85.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 85th percentile.
Joe Mixon ranks in the 91st percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.20 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.