Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 18.6 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has garnered 83.8% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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