Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-106/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to total 12.8 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 33.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (59.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.2% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in run blocking.

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