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Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Flacco Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1800/-2000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +2000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +1800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to utilize backup QB Joe Flacco.
  • This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.0% red zone pass rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 133.7 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.1 plays per game.
  • The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
  • Comprising 12.9% of his offense's red zone run game usage this year (76th percentile among quarterbacks), Joe Flacco's mobility makes him a significant weapon on the ground near the end zone.
  • The Bengals O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Joe Flacco ranks as one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 61.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 24th percentile.

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