Joe Flacco TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joe Flacco

NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-194).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +148 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Joe Flacco has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a terrific 67.5% Completion%, grading out in the 77th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 3rd-most TDs through the air in football: 1.82 per game since the start of last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 5th-worst safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 56.0% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season (68.0%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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