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Joe Flacco Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 228.5 (+121/-140).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 225.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 228.5 @ +121.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Browns are an enormous 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.The projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The Browns have called the most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.The predictive model expects Joe Flacco to throw 38.6 passes this week, on balance: the most out of all QBs.The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.With a bad 5.84 adjusted yards-per-target (21st percentile) this year, Joe Flacco ranks among the least efficient QBs in the NFL.The Packers pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.41 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-fewest in the league.As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Green Bay's group of CBs has been very good since the start of last season, profiling as the best in football.
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