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Joe Burrow Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+610/-800).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -830 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -800.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to throw 39.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.With a fantastic ratio of 1.71 per game (94th percentile), Joe Burrow rates as one of the top touchdown passers in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.Joe Burrow's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful decline in his throwing precision over last season's 71.6% mark.This year, the feeble Arizona Cardinals run defense has conceded a whopping 1.07 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-highest rate in the NFL.
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