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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +134 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by our trusted projection set to run 67.2 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to throw 39.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.
  • With a fantastic ratio of 1.71 per game (94th percentile), Joe Burrow rates as one of the top touchdown passers in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
  • The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Joe Burrow's 67.6% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a meaningful decline in his throwing precision over last season's 71.6% mark.

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