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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 62.4% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Right now, the most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (65.0% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Bengals.
  • The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 35.9 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league vs. the Dolphins defense this year (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Miami defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3.5 points.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are predicted by the projection model to call just 61.2 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to pocket protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Bengals ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year.
  • Joe Burrow's passing precision has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 71.6% to 65.7%.

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