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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 14

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bengals to pass on 60.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.2% red zone pass rate.
  • The Buffalo cornerbacks profile as the 3rd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are expected by the projection model to call only 62.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Bengals profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
  • Joe Burrow's 59.5% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy reduction in his throwing precision over last year's 71.6% rate.
  • This year, the fierce Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a feeble 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

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