My Account Log Out

reorder

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+147/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.2% red zone pass rate.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 39.0 passes in this contest, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow profiles as one of the most accurate QBs in the league last year with a remarkable 71.6% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Bengals being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense last year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

The Cincinnati offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Last year, the strong Browns defense has surrendered a puny 67.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

More Joe Burrow Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™