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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.3% red zone pass rate.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.

In this week's game, Joe Burrow is expected by the projection model to total the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.3.

With a terrific 67.2% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) last year, Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most accurate QBs in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The New England Patriots defense has yielded the fewest touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.12 per game last year.

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