Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 7:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has allowed the 5th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have incorporated play action on just 18.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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