Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 passes per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Joe Burrow has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with an impressive 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.6%).
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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