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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.

Joe Burrow has attempted 38.3 passes per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.

Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

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