Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
While Joe Burrow has received 4.4% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's run game in this week's game at 14.4%.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to run on 37.2% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Joe Burrow has averaged a mere 1.2 carries per game this year, one of the smallest rates in football when it comes to quarterbacks (11th percentile).
As it relates to run support (and the effect it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
Joe Burrow's 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a a meaningful decline in his rushing skills over last season's 16.0 rate.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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