Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Joe Burrow has averaged 3.3 carries per game this year, one of the largest rates in the NFL among QBs (75th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (16.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for substantially more yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's running effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 5.04 yards-per-carry vs just 3.53 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 31.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 93 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.

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