Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (12.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.1% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for significantly more yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.06 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.53 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 33.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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