Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 235.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.2% of their downs: the highest frequency on the slate this week.
This week, Joe Burrow is anticipated by the projection model to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.5.

Favors Under

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bengals have called the 6th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 31.0 per game) since the start of last season.
With a feeble 6.55 adjusted yards-per-target (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, Joe Burrow places among the least effective QBs in the NFL.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 4th-fewest yards in football (just 191.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Chiefs defense since the start of last season.

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