Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 253.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 253.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.8 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 276.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the league versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks project as the worst CB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Joe Burrow's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 57.1%.
Joe Burrow's throwing efficiency has worsened this season, averaging a mere 4.67 yards-per-target vs a 7.63 mark last season.

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