Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among QBs.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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