Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-148/+113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.3 passes per game this year, checking in at the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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