Joe Burrow Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Interceptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 8, 2024 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may drop.
In this week's game, Joe Burrow is expected by the projection model to total the 6th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.3.
The New England Patriots have intercepted 0.63 throws per game last year, grading out as the 10th-worst defense in football by this standard
When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been atrocious last year, projecting as the 8th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a giant 9-point favorite in this week's contest.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have just 123.8 plays on offense run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

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