Joe Burrow Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this week's contest (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (8.1% in games he has played).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Houston's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
Joe Burrow has averaged just 1.8 carries per game this year, one of the lowest rates in the league among quarterbacks (22nd percentile).
The Bengals O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at run-game blocking.

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