My Account Log Out
 
 
J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

 
 
 
J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 8th-most pass-focused team in the league near the goal line (58.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 134.8 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).
  • The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.
  • While J.K. Dobbins has been responsible for 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Denver's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 5.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • J.K. Dobbins has accumulated a puny -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 14th percentile among running backs.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 5.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 13.9.
  • J.K. Dobbins's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 89.4% to 65.0%.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™