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J.K. Dobbins
NFL · Player Props
J.K. Dobbins
RB · Denver Broncos
Touchdowns
Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 10, 2025 Updated Nov 7, 2025 1:17 AM UTC
NFL Props J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

Favors Over
  • At the moment, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.
Favors Under
  • With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
  • J.K. Dobbins has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among RBs.
  • When it comes to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the paltry 14th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 5.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 13.9.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 89.3% mark.
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