J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 10, 2025

Updated Nov 7, 2025 1:17 AM UTC

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-110/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football in the red zone (60.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Broncos.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
J.K. Dobbins has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among RBs.
When it comes to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the paltry 14th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
J.K. Dobbins's 5.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 13.9.
J.K. Dobbins's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 89.3% mark.