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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Denver Broncos vs New York Giants

 
 
 
J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+138/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have 135.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average).
  • The New York Giants defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.7 per game) this year.
  • The Denver offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • This year, the shaky Giants pass defense has given up a whopping 85.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 8.5-point advantage, the Broncos are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Denver Broncos to be the 9th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 5.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 13.9.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 0.8 adjusted catches per game this year represents a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 2.5 rate.
  • J.K. Dobbins's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 89.4% to 65.0%.

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