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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Broncos to run the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Broncos this year (a massive 59.6 per game on average).
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • The New York Jets safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Broncos are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Broncos to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Jets, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (just 28.4 per game) this year.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 32.4% Route Participation% this season indicates a remarkable reduction in his pass attack utilization over last season's 46.2% rate.
  • J.K. Dobbins's play as a receiver has declined this year, notching a mere 0.8 adjusted catches vs 2.5 last year.

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