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J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Broncos as the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The Denver Broncos offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in football (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 27.54 seconds per play.The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.With a sizeable 9.4% Target Share (75th percentile) since the start of last season, J.K. Dobbins places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the NFL.The Denver Broncos O-line ranks as the best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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When talking about air yards, J.K. Dobbins grades out in the measly 8th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling just -3.0 per game.J.K. Dobbins grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, averaging a measly 4.27 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 5th percentile.J.K. Dobbins checks in as one of the worst running backs in football at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging just 5.54 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 23rd percentile.The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (75.6%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (75.6%).Since the start of last season, the daunting Chargers defense has given up the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a meager 4.5 yards.
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