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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders

 
 
 
J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-116).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 8th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (62.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Broncos ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 9-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite this week, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan.
  • When it comes to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the paltry 14th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 5.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 13.9.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 3.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a substantial reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 12.0 mark.
  • J.K. Dobbins's 75.8% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a meaningful decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 89.3% mark.

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