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J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
J.J. McCarthy Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+450/-610).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -560 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -610.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (63.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.
  • The Giants defense has surrendered the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.71 per game this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.
  • The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.29 per game) against the Giants defense this year.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

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