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J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 9

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
J.J. McCarthy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+160/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Vikings being a heavy -9.5-point underdog this week.
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (64.0% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Vikings.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • This year, the feeble Lions defense has given up a colossal 2.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run just 62.2 total plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 10th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Vikings this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the league vs. the Lions defense this year (66.5% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Detroit Lions safeties profile as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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