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J.J. McCarthy

J.J. McCarthy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
J.J. McCarthy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+123/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -162 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -167.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.1% red zone pass rate.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 57.5% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Minnesota's passing stats last year may be artificially too high (and rushing stats decreased) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We ought to be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this week's contest.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the fewest attempts in football (just 30.6 per game) last year.
  • The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the fewest TDs through the air in football: 1.00 per game last year.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very good last year, profiling as the 3rd-best in football.

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