Jimmy Garoppolo Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jimmy Garoppolo has been a more integral piece of his offense's run game this year (14.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (6.2%).
The Raiders O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Green Bay's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Raiders as the 5th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 39.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Jimmy Garoppolo to accrue 3.2 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the fewest among all QBs.

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