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Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns

Jerry Jeudy Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -345 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a huge 10-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 62.2 plays per game.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (34.5 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Browns to call the 10th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Jerry Jeudy's 48.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a meaningful reduction in his receiving skills over last season's 63.9% rate.

With a dreadful ratio of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), Jerry Jeudy rates as one of the weakest receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to WRs this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in football against the Lions defense since the start of last season (67.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The Lions defense has allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.85 per game since the start of last season.

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