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Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Jerry Jeudy Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Browns, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • The model projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (39.1 per game) this year.
  • With an exceptional 91.2% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.
  • The leading projections forecast Jerry Jeudy to total 6.3 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased ground volume.
  • The Cleveland O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
  • Jerry Jeudy's 2.6 adjusted receptions per game this year marks an impressive drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last year's 5.3 mark.
  • Jerry Jeudy's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 63.9% to 47.6%.
  • The Pittsburgh cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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